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The71st Emmy Awardsair this Sunday, September 22.
Which nominees will take home Emmy gold?
And who should win, but wont?
But withVeepineligible last year,The Marvelous Mrs. Maiselwas able to swoop in and conquer.
Or willVeep, in its last season, take home a fourth best-comedy Emmy?
Lets start with what (probably) wont win.
But it might be a little too offbeat and serialized to capture the votes it needs to win.
Maisel,Veep, andFleabag, and thats a high bar.
ButFleabaghas buzz and cultural momentum behind it that the other two dont.
Jen Chaney
The Emmy should (and will) go to …Fleabag.
No other performance in this category comes close to having all the different layers that Haders does.
But lets run through them nonetheless.
This is Anthony Andersons fifth nomination forBlack-ish; hes never won and I dont see that changing this year.
Danson is a treasure onThe Good Place, but I think theres more support forBarrythan NBCs existential comedy.
JC
The Emmy should (and will) go to …Bill Hader forBarry.
I can imagine a scenario where any of these women might win.
Brosnahan could repeat, but I am skeptical of that happening either.
Shes as close to a shoo-in as this category has.
And havingobserved her work up close, I think she deserves to win one more time.
JC
The Emmy should (and will) go to …Julia Louis-Dreyfus forVeep.
He could very well win again … or all theBarrynominees could cancel each other out.
That would leave Arkin, Hale, and Shalhoub.
Of those three, I think Hale and Shalhoub the two Tonys have the strongest chances.
My hunch is that Shalhoub will ultimately prevail, but by a thin margin.
Hale has been a magnificent foil to Louis-Dreyfus throughoutVeepand has been nominated six times, winning twice.
JC
The Emmy should go to …Stephen Root forBarry.
Its also Roots first Emmy nomination.
This guys been a great actor forever.
Give him an award!
But the Emmy will go to …Tony Shalhoub forThe Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.
Im ruling out Hinkle because if anyone fromMrs.
Maiselis going to win in this category, its Borstein, who won last year.
JC
The Emmy should go to …Sarah Goldberg forBarry.
But the Emmy will go to …Olivia Colman forFleabag.
And I wont be mad about it.
That leaves us with the nerve-jangling ronny/lily fromBarry, the glowing nostalgia of Were Going to the Catskills!
Maisel, and the all-forward-momentum of the first episode ofFleabags second season.
But the Emmy will go to …ronny/lily, as directed by Hader forBarry.
It definitely would be, but unfortunately, I dont see that happening.
I dont see it happening forRussian DollorThe Good Placeeither, despite the strength of the writing on both shows.
TheBarryepisode ronny/lily stands out more for its direction than its writing, at least in my view.
Its tragedy as comedy.
Plus,Veephas only one writing Emmy to its credit and that seems wrong.
Am I allowed to do that?
Selina Meyer proved there are no rules anymore.
But the Emmy will go to …Veep.
On every scale popularity, narrative scope, production values Game of Throneswas the biggest show in recent memory.
Emmy voters will definitely give it one more trophy for best drama as it heads into the sunset.
JC
The Emmy should go to …Better Call Saul.
Maybe it will get an Emmy in this category someday.
But its not going to happen on Sunday.
But the Emmy will go to …Game of Thrones.
JC
The Emmy should (and will) go to …Billy Porter forPose.
No one else could play that role but him.
Plus, I want to hear his acceptance speech.
As for Moore, her work hasnt attracted the heft or buzz that the other nominees performances have.
Like Bateman, Linney could be a surprise winner forOzark.
Clarke could get dinged by the fact that Daeneryss story line felt a bit rushed inGOTs finale season.
Oh seems like the obvious pick since she won last year.
Everyone else in this category is very good.
But Dinklages work stands out as important and vital in a way that the others dont quite.
JC
The Emmy should (and will) go to …Peter Dinklage forGame of Thrones.
With four nominees from Westeros, theres a real chance theyll split the vote.
But the Emmy will go to …Julia Garner forOzark.
The question is: Which episode?
The Iron Throne was a finale peppered with the kind of visual flourishes rememberDany and her dragon wings?
that seem designed to catch Emmy voters attention.
But of the threeGame of Thronesepisodes nominated, those are the two truly significant ones.
Either way: Internets so gonna internet when this category is announced!
JC
The Emmy should (and will) go to …Game of ThronesforThe Iron Throne.
Purely on a scene-by-scene basis, The Iron Throne was well directed and probably deserves the award?
That would beSuccession, and its wry, dark season-one finale, written by Armstrong.
This time, Emmy voters may actually attempt to look to the future.
JC
The Emmy should go to …Winner, the season finale ofBetter Call Saul.
First of all, its called Winner, so its pretty much telling you what it is.
Third, it ends with a phrase that is also an origin story: Sall good, man.
But the Emmy will go to …Successionand Nobody Is Ever Missing.
It has to be considered the dark horse candidate.
Matt Zoller Seitz
The Emmy should go to …When They See Us.
But the Emmy will go to …Fosse/Verdon.
The two most impressive performers in this category are the subtlest.
MZS
The Emmy should go to …Jharrel Jerome forWhen They See Us.
But the Emmy will go to …Jared Harris forChernobyl.
But its a deeply human, accessible performance that never feels like a mere impression.
MZS
The Emmy should (and will) go to …Michelle Williams forFosse/Verdon.
MZS
The Emmy should go to …Patricia Arquette forThe Act.
But the Emmy will go to …Patricia Clarkson forSharp Objects.
Leguizamo deserves to win an Emmy for his work here.
But hes so remarkable that we shouldnt be surprised if lightning strikes.
MZS
The Emmy should go to …John Leguizamo forWhen They See Us.
But the Emmy will go to …Stellan Skarsgard forChernobyl.
But by all rights, this should beWhen They See Usdirector Ava DuVernays year.
MZS
The Emmy should go to …Ava DuVernay forWhen They See Us.
But the Emmy will go to …Johan Renck forChernobyl.
MZS
The Emmy should go to …Ava DuVernay and Michael Starrbury forWhen They See Us.
But the Emmy will go to …Craig Mazin forChernobyl.
In the short history of this category, it has been remarkably stable.
First it was Jon StewartsDaily Showin 2015, thenLast Week Tonightevery year since.
Im not sure that any of the other shows have enough momentum to topple John Oliver.
But if the awardwereto go to another nominee, it might be the year for Stephen ColbertsLate Show.
But the Emmy will go to …Last Week Tonight.
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
At Home With Amy Sedaris(truTV)Documentary Now!
(Showtime)
Look,Saturday Night Liveis probably going to win this.
Pennebaker documentary about the fake musical.
The details are what tipDocumentary Now!over the edge from funny into brilliant.
But the Emmy will go to …Saturday Night Live.
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
Documentary Now!
The writing is right up top.
It is the thing you celebrate.
Its gonna be a hard one to beat.
ButDocumentary Now!had some of the best directing anywhere on TV last year.
(Did I mention goofy and stupid?)
