Are we in a podcast bubble?
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That was the year ofSerial,podcastings first blockbuster, which quickly spawned anarmy of imitators.
It was also the year NPR refugee Alex Blumberg founded a start-up podcast company called Gimlet Media.
Luminary aims to become the Netflix of podcasting.
In other words, podcasting is suddenly more than a mission; its an industry.
At the Wythe, four talent agents were spotted huddling in a corner, presumably plotting.
An intellectual-property lawyer roamed the lobby.
He worked for a Chinese-backed start-up that was throwing $100 million into podcasting with no discernible business plan.
Will listeners be willing to dole out monthly payments as they do for streaming video?
Will advertising rates, some of the highest in media, crash?
What distinguishesa boom from a blip the beginning of a golden age from a spike of irrational exuberance?
In media, it depends on the audience.
The fact is that podcasting has always done decent business.
He likes to cite a focus group in which listeners were asked why they went to hotels.com.
They said, Because Ira Glass told me to.
$19.99 if you use my code, plus for $10 more Ill double the order.
Williams found that direct-offer-code advertising worked 30 percent better on podcasts than radio.
The demonstrably strong connections drove up rates.
He soon grew frustrated with NPRs limitations its slow decision-making, its strict rules around advertising.
We should be making more; people want more, he remembers thinking.
There should be thePlanet Moneyof technology!
So he became, like his sources, an entrepreneur.
In the grand tradition of podcast logrolling, he decided to promote his new podcast company with a podcast.
It was my best marketing stunt, he says.Startupbecame Gimlets flagship show.
The best thing that happened to Gimlet wasSerial,the spinoff ofThis American Lifethat shattered the audience ceiling.
Death.Those shows piqued the interest of Hollywood.
Now a sizable portion of Wonderys revenue comes from TV and movie deals, according to Lopez.
You have proof of concept.
Yet the whole medium still felt like a concept an experiment until Spotify put down its stake.
Two years ago, she pitched potential investors on starting up the Netflix of podcasts and had few takers.
Today funders are finally returning Breakers calls.
In the past two weeks, everything has changed.
That is to say, it didnt take away from other platforms.
The next panel starred Luminary CEO Matt Sacks.
The first podcast wouldnt debut until late spring, allowing time for marketing campaigns in major metro areas.
In an article announcing the lineup, the New YorkTimesreportedthat Luminary had so far raised nearly $100 million.
(They added that they had well over a million listeners on all platforms.)
I said to the agent, But what do I get out of it?
He said, Well, money.
(A spokesperson for Luminary says the company never made or prepared an offer.)
Everyone assumes that rates will go down, and how will people make their payrolls?
I think whats going on is kind of a land grab, says Glass.
Building life rafts and getting ready to set up walls.
In fact, those two fears are intertwined.
The premium model might be the best alternative theyve got if listeners are willing to go there.
Theres a glut of content, but that doesnt mean every Wiccan D&D podcast is making money.
Thats more than most cable-TV shows, and I dont make cable-TV money.
Webster displayed pie charts showing hours of listening time among Americans 12 and older.
Between 2014 and 2018, the share devoted to podcasts increased 122 percent.
The less-good news: That trend was from 1.7 percent to 3.9 percent of total time.
Webster said it was all gravy.
Thats a lot of moneys.
Webster called it a true milestone.
Its never been hockey-stick growth, Webster explained, and there are several reasons for that.
The largest barrier is simple inconvenience, especially for older, less adaptive listeners.
New cars increasingly come preloaded with podcasts, but cars turn over slowly.
Smart speakers have yet to be fully integrated.
There is this insider image.
True crime aside, no one has nailed down what makes a hit.
Thats part of whats so exciting about podcasts; they havent been reduced to green-light-ready formulas.
One executive told me he kept a sign above his desk: DRUG DEALER STRATEGY.
Meaning: Just get them to try one, and theyre hooked.
